Recently the World Bank has published a report where it has shown why a 4°C rise in temperature needs to be avoided. Climate change means the change in temperature and we see a number of analyses show how this increased temperature will affect the globe. During the last year, extreme climatic conditions were witnessed across the globe and they had tremendous impact, especially on the poor and marginalised people. Although below-average temperatures were recorded in Alaska, and northern and eastern Australia, high temperatures occurred over North America, southern Europe, most of Asia, and parts of northern Africa (World Bank, 2013). The World Bank has categorically shown how this high temperature has affected the people in these regions when Bangladesh is also not an exception.
But how the variability of rainfall due to climate change can also have a serious impact on lives is not talked about that much. While talking about the six seasons of Bangladesh, people here become nostalgic and at the same time frustrated as they cannot see the beauty of those six seasons with which their culture and human behaviour were closely linked.
Recently, the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS) and the CARE International jointly carried out an empirical research in eight countries across the globe including Bangladesh. The research led by Ahsan Uddin Ahmed, aims to inform policymakers about the implications of climate change on people's livelihoods, food security and migration. In Bangladesh, the study was conducted in the northwestern part with a sample size of 150. (Detail of the study can be found at: wheretherainfalls.org/mission)
In brief, the study shows that 93 per cent of the people interviewed noted a decline in overall rainfall, but nonetheless a longer rainy season (98 per cent noted). Three quarters of respondents mentioned an increase in drought and untimely dry spells, two-thirds (65 per cent of HHs) noted more extreme events. An overwhelming majority can no longer distinguish the six seasons that had been common in the past.
This scenario is quite alarming for the country where still life and livelihood of many people depend on agriculture which is the most affected sector due to climate change. Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate in terms of longer-term trends in the average conditions of rainfall and temperature, which determine the global distribution of food crops, and also in terms of inter-annual variability and the occurrence of droughts, floods, heat waves, frosts and other extreme events (IPCC, 2012)
One of the expected results of climate change is the increasing climatic variability; for example, even where the mean rainfall is not projected to change, research shows that there are likely to be more droughts and more precipitation events. Costello (2009) shows that a changing climate is linked with increased threats to food safety, post-harvest losses and pressure from invasive species, pests and diseases when Foresight (2011) claims that climate change is likely to increase the incidence and geographic spread of human, animal and plant diseases. The first assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1990) also came up with similar findings and it estimated that by 2050, 150 million people could be displaced by climate change-related phenomena like desertification, increasing water scarcity, floods, storm etc. Ahmed and Neelormi (2008) have estimated that 2.5 million people might be displaced per year as a consequence of climate change-induced hazards under a moderate climate change in Bangladesh. So, there is no way to deny that migration, especially of the forced ones, is often an immediate aftermath of climatic shock, but also there are some long-term impacts of climate change on migration.
According to the research of UNU-EHS and CARE, there has been a significant change in the rainfall pattern of the country and this change disturbs the seasonal production cycle and threatens the poor's livelihood security. It also finds the small-holding farmers and the fishermen are the most affected groups. Even due to the climate change, the input cost of agro-production has increased as there is an increased demand for irrigation, fertilizer and pesticide and thus agriculture has become commercially less viable for the farmers. Apart from this, the increasing labour force in rural Bangladesh cannot be accommodated in the agricultural labour market. That is why; many people often seek migration as a way of employment.
When rural-urban migration has been very prevalent in Bangladesh, the modality and reasons of migration vary largely. This migration is creating heavy pressure on urbanization and, on the other hand, has some severe impacts on the psycho-social condition of the family members in the rural areas.
High urban densities pose a great threat and create massive vulnerability for the people. It poses a threat to populations when proper infrastructural and institutional frameworks are not present. Unplanned urbanisation as a result of rapidly the increasing demand has made the cities filled with slums where life struggles to find a minimum level of comfort and safety. However, on the other side, we see Dhaka in a position of high urban disaster risk. We have come across how accidents in the urban areas ruined thousands of families in the rural areas. Moreover, when someone migrates, he or she leaves a tremendous psycho-social pressure on the family members, which we barely notice. Lots of such stories remain untold and so unheard.
However, migration is not generally seen as a negative aspect unless it is forced. We could address it by reducing rural poverty and strengthening the agricultural sector, where climate change remains a perpetual obstacle. In this regard, the Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) has come up with a good model named 'Climate Smart Agriculture' (CSA) which is based on three pillars:
1. Sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes;
2. Adapting and building resilience to climate change;
3. Reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas emissions, where possible.
FAO also defines and explains the ways of doing these considering the fact that the strategy of CSA can vary from country to country based on their geological and climatic conditions.
However, the research conducted by the UNU-EHS and the CARE emphasis's much on making agriculture profitable for the farmers in order to protect their livelihoods and ensure food security and at the same time, it suggests that the poor and marginal farmers should be supported in diversifying their sources of living and also finding alternatives to agriculture. In regards to migration, the study notes vulnerability of migrants' households must be recognized and reduced at both ends - in the migrants' home villages and at their places of destination. There are indeed some social costs of migration which we need to consider as well while understanding the entire scenario.
Taking all these into account, it is imperative to give our attention and effort to work on the underlying causes of these types of pushed migration where promotion of climate-adaptive agriculture is needed making agriculture commercially viable for the farmers, creating a skilled labour force and planning proper urbanization. Proper policy implications and strategic direction alongside efficient implementation with a harmonized approach are imperative to make these happen for the sake of sustainable growth of the country.
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